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Oil slides despite OPEC talk of prices hitting a floor

Lowest level in nearly six years

Oil fell in see-saw trading yesterday, with US crude ending at its lowest in nearly six years, as buyers and sellers discounted comments from OPEC’s top official about the market finally finding a bottom.

It was an up-and-down session for crude, which gyrated along with the US dollar in the wake of a decisive Greek election victory by the left-wing Syriza party.

Prices initially rallied after OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri said oil may have hit a floor and could move higher very soon, the first comments he has made on the subject during crude’s seven-month-long price rout.

But the gains proved fleeting as global benchmark Brent fell 1.3 percent to US$48.16. US crude lost almost one percent, settling at US$45.15, the lowest settlement price for the existing front-month contract. Following the restart of a major US Midwest refinery unit, the Brent/WTI spread narrowed to US$3.01 after going as wide as US$3.41 on Friday, its widest in three weeks.

“Now the prices are around US$45-US$50 and I think maybe they reached the bottom and will see some rebound very soon,” Badri told Reuters on the sidelines of a conference at Chatham House.

The 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumps about a third of the world’s oil and until last year had a policy of adjusting its supply to support prices. Oil prices have fallen almost 60 percent since June to below US$49 a barrel on global oversupply. Prices kept falling after OPEC’s surprise refusal in November to cut its output to retain market share against rival suppliers.

Defending OPEC’s decision, Badri warned that any oil supply cut would lead to spare production capacity, a lack of investment and an eventual shortage and price spike that could exceed that of 2008, when oil hit its record high above US$147 a barrel.

“Suppose we cut production, and then we’ll have spare capacity,” he said. “Producers, when they have excess capacity, they will not invest. If they do not invest there will be no more supply, if there is no more supply there will be a shortage in the market after three-four years and the price will go up and we’ll see a repetition of 2008.”

Badri said there was no imminent prospect of OPEC and non-OPEC producers sitting down to discuss cutbacks.

“It will take some time,” he said. “It will take another four-five months and we will not see some concrete efforts before the end of the first half of the year due to the reason that we will see how the market behaves at the end of the first half of 2015.”

Badri further defended OPEC’s decision in November to leave its output target unchanged.

“It was a collective decision,” he said. “Everybody participated in the decision.”


SOURCE: Herald with Reuters